Iran built a cheap wall of missiles and drones around the Strait of Hormuz — and it’s keeping the US Navy out

 Summary and Key Points: In 1987, when Iran tried to close the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. Navy steamed in and broke the blockade. Nearly four decades later, with Iran's grip complete, the most powerful navy in history is keeping its distance — and one analyst argues it has no choice. For a fraction of one warship's cost, Iran has built a missile-and-drone shield the Navy's own leaders won't risk sailing into. What that means, the argument goes, reaches far beyond the Gulf.

Why the US Navy Cannot Reopen the Strait of Hormuz (Without Paying a Terrible Price)

During the 1987 Tanker War between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran attempted to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. They mined it. Iranian ships, missiles, and warplanes harassed civilian tankers innocently passing through the waterway. This situation did not persist, though. That’s because the United States Navy acted aggressively to reopen the Strait and prevent the Iranians from any further freedom of action there.

But that was 1987.

Sadly for America’s proud Navy, the Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 is playing out much differently. Unlike in 1987, when the US Navy had a blatant overmatch of Iran, Tehran has honed its asymmetrical warfare capabilities, and it’s tethered them to a serious strategy of denial. Whereas the Iranian ability to blockade the Strait in 1987 was limited, today, as we’ve seen, it is complete.

That is explicitly the result of advances in anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), the rise of advanced (cheap) drones, and increases in detection capabilities. All these factors have combined to afford Iran a comprehensive anti-area/access-denial (A2/AD) capability perfectly tailored for preventing US naval power projection into the Strait of Hormuz. Thus, the US Navy must today keep its warships at the opening of the Strait of Hormuz or, more preferably, far outside the range of Iranian ASBMs and drone swarms.

Iran Has Changed the Strategic Equation

In 1987, the US Navy enjoyed freedom of movement despite Iranian military threats. Iran has constrained the US Navy in 2026.

This situation is untenable.

Washington cannot countenance a new paradigm in which Tehran has operational control over the Strait of Hormuz and imposes transit and/or service fees on civilian cargo ships and oil tankers passing through. At the same time, however, Washington cannot change the conditions on the ground by military means.

The Trump administration has tried to achieve this goal militarily for nearly four months. They cannot.

Why the Navy Refuses to Escort Commercial Shipping

Some have questioned why the Navy simply doesn’t start escorting civilian ships through the Strait.

They certainly could try to do so, as they did in 1987.

It is the Navy’s own leadership that is resisting these calls from the White House. The US Navy is one of the most expensive fleets in the world. It possesses complex systems, notably in its surface warfare fleet.

These exquisite platforms are expensive to maintain and hard to replace. For a fraction of the cost, and with advanced targeting assistance from Chinese and possibly Russian military assets, Iran’s arsenal of A2/AD weapons can damage these ships if they get too close, sending those ships to the repair yards, where they will languish for years.

Given that the US Navy’s fleet is the smallest it has been in decades and there is already an ongoing naval shipyard crisis in the United States, the Pentagon can ill afford to risk even one of its warships in what would be a disastrous campaign to escort civilian cargo ships and oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

Just look at the US Navy’s experience against the Houthi Rebels of Yemen in the Red Sea in 2024. Ultimately, the Navy withdrew from the battlefield, effectively leaving the Houthis in control there rather than risk the safety of their vaunted warships.

The Pentagon Knows the Risks

Judging from the fact that the Navy is still keeping its warships as far away from the Strait as possible, even though it is not in America’s strategic interest to allow Iran to maintain operational control over the Strait, nor is it in America’s economic interest to keep the Strait blockaded, if the Navy weren’t concerned about its warships, why not just send them through?

The odds of losing their warships are far greater than the Pentagon is letting on. Iran would fire on those warships.

Those warships would eventually be damaged and sent to the repair yard, where they would suddenly find themselves out of commission far longer than is acceptable. Serious strategic gaps in America’s surface warfare fleet would arise at a critical time.

Trump’s Escalation Dilemma

Still, if the Commander-in-Chief were to give the admirals direct orders to reopen the Strait and/or to escort civilian ships through the Strait, the Pentagon would follow those orders from the lawful president. Right now, they’ve kept Trump away from ordering them to do so by filling him with fear scenarios of what might happen if he gave that order.

But, if the situation in the Mideast deteriorates as badly as many experts believe it will, Trump might believe he has no choice but to go full bore against Iran in the Strait.

Even if the Navy managed to degrade and defeat the Iranian threat in the Strait, it’d pay a high price. With China looking increasingly like it is going to do something militarily in its part of the world, the Navy cannot afford to lose any ships in a fight with Iran. That is precisely what will likely happen if Trump orders the Navy to reopen the Strait without a diplomatic settlement with Tehran.