Israel Needs Compensation for the U.S.-Saudi F-35 Deal, but Its Air Supremacy Won't Vanish So Soon

 U.S. President Donald Trump clarified his priorities on Tuesday and, not surprisingly, showed that he sees no problem in selling the advanced F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia. Publicly, at least, he isn't linking the large planned procurement to a future normalization of Israeli-Saudi relations, although with Trump one can't rule out anything.

At the same time, the president is determined to realize his Gaza plan. On this matter, in the wake of the UN Security Council's approval of his plan, he brings mixed news for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As with the Saudi affair, two things are clear: Trump is mainly concerned with American interests, and the final result bears no resemblance to Netanyahu's numerous promises of victory on the different fronts.

On Tuesday, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that his country would consider joining the Abraham Accords only if a clear path to a Palestinian state is guaranteed. Meanwhile, Trump reiterated the promise that Israel is about to "be happy," when he was asked about the jet deal.

On Tuesday, Trump said what was obvious to him: the Saudis are "great allies," which is why he's prepared to sell them F-35s. At least for now, he is not mentioning in this context his ambition to achieve a normalization agreement. It seems that Netanyahu needs this more than his potential partner, MBS, who visited Washington on Tuesday. The Saudi public has strong reservations about Israel in view of its actions in Gaza during the war. Bin Salman will have to decide whether to ignore domestic public criticism. Perhaps he believes he will get what he wants from the U.S. without paying the price: normalization with Israel.

In any case, the cries of dismay over the loss of Israeli air supremacy in the Middle East are a bit premature. Just five months ago, Israel proved its total air supremacy when its jets struck Iranian territory undisturbed, sortie after sortie, for 12 days. This achievement is linked to the F-35s obtained from the U.S., but that doesn't explain everything. The Israeli Air Force's planning and operational capabilities have no parallel in today's Middle East. The Saudis are definitely more than just camel-riders, as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich recently said contemptuously, but it will probably take time until they or even the Turks manage to close the professional gap.

A similar jet deal between the U.S. and the United Arab Emirates, with Netanyahu's quiet support, was closed in 2020 following the Abraham Accords, but never realized due to American defense officials' concerns that the jet's sensitive information might leak from the UAE to China. This time, it's hard to believe that Trump will give up, because of the financial bonanza that he believes is now awaiting him if all the economic and defense deals with the Saudis are signed.

What Israel mainly needs, under the circumstances, is compensation. That has happened before, as part of the American governments' legal commitment to maintaining Israel's qualitative military edge. Israel received precision weapons, advanced arms systems and access to the highest intelligence in compensation for the delivery of U.S. arms to countries defined as its direct enemies. Israel always had something to give in exchange. The question is what is Netanyahu's current bargaining power with Trump. Although the president regularly praises the prime minister, and even crudely intervened in his favor in the latter's legal proceedings, it is clear who has the last word in these relations.

That is also the case with the UN resolution to establish the International Stabilization Force in Gaza. These are precisely the things that Netanyahu fought and preached against for 30 years. Ostensibly, Israel could be pleased: the resolution's text includes disarming Hamas, and after the unexpected return of all 20 living hostages (and, for now, all but three of the dead hostages), it has less incentive to do so later on. But there are also developments unfolding that do not coincide with Netanyahu's marketing messages and possibly not with Israel's interests either.

This is a major step towards internationalizing the conflict, and if the ISF's mission succeeds, there will likely be a demand to try to implement a similar model in the West Bank. The resolution's text gives Trump great powers, but conversely, it gives the Palestinian Authority no role. There is a risk that American failure in deploying the ISF will result in a rapid collapse that could complicate the situation. And for now, nothing seems to remain of the right-wing's delusions about annexing the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

While the coalition is busy with a jihad against the attorney general and whipping up its fans with conspiracies about the former military advocate general, major strategic developments are unfolding. For the ministers, it is more urgent to focus on establishing a futile committee, which will supposedly investigate the failures of the war, instead of seeing how the war is impacting Israel's regional situation. Netanyahu is winning some political achievements on the home front with his tricks. The war's achievements in the international arena, which were gained at a heavy cost in casualties, are liable to dissipate. This is directly linked to the prime minister's insistence on dragging out the war over two years while dispersing illusions among his supporters.

Netanyahu's insane decision in September to strike senior Hamas officials in Qatar led directly to Trump's decision to force the parties into a deal to end the war. That was great news for the hostages. Less so for the government. Netanyahu was forced to apologize to Qatar. Trump committed to a defense alliance with Qatar and considered doing the same with Saudi Arabia. And the arrangement in Gaza gives a critical role in the Strip to Qatar and Turkey, countries that are especially hostile to Israel and are longtime patrons of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.